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 More of the same in many ways. However, we have seen some slowing that may indicate that we are heading into another transitional period.
What does that mean? We are seeing things that are acting differently than we would expect for the time of year and current conditions. The last time that happened was when the market started its turn in favor of buyers in our local market. So, the only question to be answered is, what will the market transition into?
Looking at the numbers, it may mean things starting to stabilize, but that still leaves us with an unbelievable inventory that is only going to be fixed by more buyers taking them off the market. Read on for all the numbers.
As we look back at the month of October in past years, the trends are clear.
Inventory has been on the rise each year since 2004. In fact, inventory is up 12.4% in October 2007 from the same time in 2006. This gives us a total of 299 homes currently on the market in October.
While inventory has been increasing, sales over the same period are down by 46.9% for a grand total of 17 homes sold in October 2007.
Finally, we see that the number of homes listed in the month also increased by 38.9% compared to October 2006.A total of 100 homes were listed for sale in October 2007 - nearly a THIRD of the current inventory!
All of these facts contribute to our steadily increasing inventory. 
Right now, we have over 17 months worth of inventory, assuming sales remain constant.
When we look at the same numbers, but over the last few months, we can easily see the seasonal changes that come with the changing seasons.
From September to October, we saw the inventory increase by 7.9%.
Over the same period, we saw sales decrease by 5.6%
We continue to see increases in inventory, but when we look at the historical numbers, we at least see the rate of increase has slowed. Also, in the short term, we see some dips and changes in the inventory that are not exactly in line with what we have seen in the past. These tend to show a flattening that may be the first indicators that the market is leveling out - at least as far as inventory is concerned.
The big question is whether or not buyers are going to enter the market in great enough numbers to bring down the existing inventory of homes. There is no question that buyers are in the drivers seat, but many seem to be holding out for the "bottom" of the market. My feeling is that there will be a large number of people who look back on these times and kick themselves for not having purchased a home.
Home Prices
Unlike the county in general, home prices have not continued to increase when compared to last year at the same time.
When compared to October 2006, we can see that the average price of a home in Morgan Hill has decreased by 5.7%.
In other months, we have seen much larger decreases when compared to the same time last year. This is another reason to suspect that the market is beginning to flatten. Since we are heading into a time of year when the market tends to be at its worst, it is interesting to see this slow down in the decrease in average home price.
The average home in Morgan Hill sold for $951,029 in October 2007.
The highest priced home sold for $1,479,000 and was located at 3205 Lori Drive. The home was on the market for 88 days. The lowest priced home sold for $550.000 and was located at 16735 Feliz Ct. It took 74 days for that home to sell. Remember that the homes that sell are profoundly outnumbered by those that do not. There are homes on the market that have been out there for hundreds of days.
In the more short term look, we see that prices have remained relatively flat. We did see a drop last month, but we recovered from that to the tune of a 25.7% increase in average price.
Only 17 homes sold in October. The median tells us that 8 of those homes were above $885,000 and 8 were below that point.
Days To Sell
Another interesting indication is that the days to sell has not increased from the same time last year. It still remains at a high point, but it did manage to decrease by 2 days.
So the good news here is that there is not worse news. But to put this into perspective, this number ONLY tells us how long it took homes that have sold to sell.
But for every home that sells, there were about 17 others that did not sell in October 2007.
If a sellers wants their home to rank among the solds in this market, they have to be the best at their price point. A complete knowledge of who your competition is right now is the key to selecting the right price to get your home sold.
Compared to September of 2007, we have seen the days to sell drop by 7.5%. We would normally expect this to increase at this time of year. However, as I have mentioned, the market does appear to be in transition right now. What it transitions into will only be revealed as we move further into the winter season and on into 2008.
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