Whitelaw and Sons Real Estate Morgan Hill
Whitelaw and Sons Real Estate Morgan Hill
Predicting A Real Estate Downturn

Written by Robert Whitelaw, Realtor®/Broker/Owner

Born and raised in Silicon Valley, Robert has helped clients successfully buy, sell and invest in real estate from Palo Alto to Gilroy and Los Gatos - and beyond! Robert rates his success on providing the highest level of value to his clients.

July 11, 2022

We gaze into our crystal ball today to see if we can predict an upcoming real estate downturn.

What are real leading indicators of a real estate downturn?

Sadly, just about all the sources I find on the internet for predicting a real estate downturn talk about things that tell you that you are IN a downturn, not about to get into one. We are going to see if we can’t figure out some real predictors that will give us some advanced notice.

Real estate numbers are not the only way to predict the future.

Debt profiles.

Long time listeners to the show will recall the phrase “Debt Profile”. During and after the last downturn, we worked to understand the things that influenced a persons debt profile – of what level of indebtedness they faced and what were the big items. This helped us to predict how people respond to debt – which helps us further understand how that might effect real estate decisions.

Car Loans.

Car repossessions are an indicator that is worth considering. The most recent info on these is staggering.

What areas are great warning zones?

It can also be helpful to keep an eye on markets that tend to respond to pressures that will effect the broader real estate market.






Check Out The Last Show!

2022 Economics That Could Hit Real Estate

2022 Economics That Could Hit Real Estate

In this weeks show we are looking at a few different bits of economic news that could push our real estate market one way or another. Not a lot of certainty in todays show, but I will offer what I think are prudent actions for buyers, sellers and investors to prepare for the possible eventualities

Unemployment: The Real Numbers

Unemployment: The Real Numbers

I should have known better. Last week, I shared with you the latest unemployment numbers – and I took them at face value. Which is where I made my mistake! Of course, if I listen to my own advice from previous podcasts where we looked at unemployment, I would have realized there was likely more to the story than what they are sharing in the headlines. Of course, there is. In fact, the actual data implies the opposite of what the talking heads are suggesting.

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