We gaze into our crystal ball today to see if we can predict an upcoming real estate downturn.
What are real leading indicators of a real estate downturn?
Sadly, just about all the sources I find on the internet for predicting a real estate downturn talk about things that tell you that you are IN a downturn, not about to get into one. We are going to see if we can’t figure out some real predictors that will give us some advanced notice.
Real estate numbers are not the only way to predict the future.
Long time listeners to the show will recall the phrase “Debt Profile”. During and after the last downturn, we worked to understand the things that influenced a persons debt profile – of what level of indebtedness they faced and what were the big items. This helped us to predict how people respond to debt – which helps us further understand how that might effect real estate decisions.
Car repossessions are an indicator that is worth considering. The most recent info on these is staggering.
What areas are great warning zones?
It can also be helpful to keep an eye on markets that tend to respond to pressures that will effect the broader real estate market.
Check Out The Last Show!
I came across an interesting article where the Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors suggests that home prices in 2023 will go up by about 1%. We will chat about that and offer up an alternative viewpoint – particularly regarding what is likely to happen right here in Silicon Valley.