Fannie Mae has predicted a recession in 2023 – but still tries to put the best spin possible on it.
They need to read their own release.
The best part of this story actually comes from the Fannie Mae posting linked below and here. While they very softly suggest that a recession is likely, once you actually read through their post, all the data sure does convince me that not only are we IN a recession already, but that things will just get worse.
Housing Starts.
On the upside, builders appear to be adapting to the new reality.
The national numbers.
We also discuss some national real estate numbers. Our local market numbers in Silicon Valley are actually worse.
Mortgage demand increases.
Not only was there an uptick in mortgages, but refinances also were up. When you think through why someone would refinance and realize that just about everyone who would do that right now would be getting a WORSE rate than they currently have. We theorize on why that might be happening.
Rates hit 14 year highs.
At 6.7%, rates are reaching new heights with no end in sight.
Mortgage payments have risen ridiculously.
With mortgage payments up over 50%, this could cause some contributing factors to an upcoming decline.
Article Links:
- https://www.fanniemae.com/research-and-insights/forecast/housing-and-interest-rates-continue-suggest-recession-likely-2023
- https://magazine.realtor/daily-news/2022/09/21/housing-starts-rebound-builders-aim-to-win-buyers-back
- https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/09/realtorcom-reports-weekly-active.html
- https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/21/mortgage-demand-rises-for-the-first-time-in-six-weeks.html
- https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/23/some-homebuyers-are-facing-payment-shock-ways-to-save-on-a-mortgage.html
- https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/09/monthly-mortgage-payments-up-record.html
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